At Rio 2016, India sent out its largest ever Olympic contingent (117 athletes). So, will India be able to send more than 117 athletes at Tokyo. Let us have a look….
74 Indian athletes have already qualified for Tokyo Olympics. We have a look at how many more will athletes will be qualifying for Tokyo and try to predict India’s contingent size. Here is current state of Team India for Tokyo:
| Sport | Men | Women | Total |
| Archery | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| Athletics | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| Equestrian | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Hockey | 16 | 16 | 32 |
| Shooting | 8 | 7 | 15 |
| Wrestling | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| Boxing | 5 | 4 | 9 |
There are going to be 339 events in 33 different Sports at Tokyo Olympics.
Let us start looking at India’s chances in sports-wise! Quotas predicted are as per current rankings and recent performances.
Archery: India already have 4 archers going to Tokyo. Women’s Team has not yet qualified and they will have a chance to do so in June. Our prediction is India will get that team quota and we will have 6 archers going to Tokyo.
Artistic Swimming: India is not likely to have representation in artistic swimming. Olympic Qualification tournament is still left but India is not likely to get a quota.
Athletics: Currently India has a quota in 4 events – Men’s 3000m steeplechase, Men’s 20 km walk, Women’s 20 km walk, Mixed 4X400m relay and 2 in Men’s Javelin throw. 4X400m Men and Women team should qualify through rankings. Following athletes are also in with a chance through rankings route: Jinson Johnson in 800m/1500 m, MP Jabir in 400m Hurdles, Muhammed Anas in 400m, Sreeshankar in Long jump, Tajinder Toor in Shot Put, Dutee Chand (100m &200m), PU Chitra (1500m), Annu Rani (Javelin Throw), Swapna Barman (Heptathlon). Assuming all these athletes do get a quota, our prediction is 24 athletes (10 from Mixed relay, 9 from ranking & 5 already qualified through qualification standard).
Badminton: Currently 4 Indians are in Olympic qualification spots. 1 Women Singles, 1 Men Singles and 1 Men’s Doubles pair. There are 3 Indians currently in top 25 rankings for Tokyo – Saina Nehwal, Sourabh Verma, Parupalli Kashyap. So, hoping that at least 1 of them gets into qualification spot, 5 Indians should be heading to Tokyo.
Baseball: India is not in contention.
Basketball: In Basketball, India is out of contention. In 3X3 Basketball, India will be hosting the qualification tournament. However, with 20 teams participating and only 3 quotas available, India is highly unlikely to get a quota given their current ranking. So, no quota in basketball.
Boxing: 9 Boxers have qualified for Tokyo 2020 through Asian qualifiers. India should get another quota through World qualifiers. So, 10 boxers for Team India.
Canoeing: Qualification events are still left but India getting a quota is unlikely. But do watch out for Namita Chandel at next month’s Asian Canoeing Qualifier.
Cycling: Despite the rise of our young track cyclists, India is not in contention for qualification spots at Tokyo. Paris 2024 is what we should be looking at in terms of Olympic Quotas in Cycling.
Diving: Qualification quotas are still available at FINA Diving World Cup to be held in April 2020. However, India is unlikely to get a quota. But do watch out for the performance of Ramananda Sharma & Siddharth Pradeshi.
Equestrian: Fouaad Mirza is the only 1 to qualify.
Fencing: C.A. Bhavani Devi should qualify in individual Sabre. So, 1 quota in fencing.
Field Hockey: Qualification is over. 32 Indians will go to Tokyo in Hockey – 16 Men + 16 Women.
Football: India is out of qualification contention in both Men’s & Women’s football.
Golf: Currently 3 Indians are in qualification spots. Shubhankar Sharma is also close to a qualification spot. So, as per our prediction, 4 Indians should be going to Tokyo in Golf.
Gymnastics: Till now, no gymnast has qualified for Tokyo. Realistically, Dipa Karmakar is India’s only hope for qualification. But, she has been struggling with fitness. If she is able to recover for Asian Championships where 2 Olympic quotas will be available, she can make it to Tokyo. But right now, it seems no Olympic quota in Gymnastics.
Handball: India is out of qualification contention in both Men’s & Women’s handball.
Judo: Currently Indian Judokas are not in direct qualification spots. However, India should get 1 continental spot. So, 1 quota in Judo.
Karate: India is not in contention.
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Modern Pentathlon: India is not in contention.
Rowing: Rowing Federation of India recently lifted its 2-year ban on Dattu Baban Bhokanal. He qualified for Rio Olympic, so hoping that he is able to replicate his performance at upcoming qualifiers, 1 quota in Rowing.
Rugby Sevens: India is not in qualification contention.
Sailing: A quota is unlikely in Sailing. But do watch out for Nethra Kumanan at Asian Championship. 2 quotas are available in Laser Radial class event and Nethra has a chance to achieve it.
Shooting: India has already got 15 quotas. We predict India will get another via rankings in 25m Rapid Fire Pistol Men event. So, total 16 quotas.
Skateboarding: India is not in contention for Olympic quotas.
Softball: India is not in contention.
Sports Climbing: India is not in contention.
Surfing: Though one qualification event is yet to happen, unfortunately India is not in contention.
Swimming: Currently no India swimmer has achieved Olympic qualification time (OQT). However, 4 Indians have achieved the B-mark (Olympic selection time) – Kushagra Rawat & Advait Page in 800m freestyle, Sajan Prakash in 200m freestyle, Srihari Natraj in 100m backstroke. Based on rankings, FINA will allocate extra quotas to those who have achieved B-mark. If India gets a quota through this route will only be known in June. But due to universality places, India can have 2 swimmers at Tokyo. So, 2 members in swimming for sure.
Table Tennis: India had a golden opportunity to get team qualification in January. However, it did not materialize. Now, we are looking at getting singles qualification in April. Our prediction is 2 Men’s Singles and 2 Women’s Singles players should qualify. So, 4 Indians in TT.
Taekwondo: Asian Qualification tournament is still left but India is unlikely to get a quota as per current rankings.
Tennis: Saina Mirza can qualify in Women’s Doubles through protected ranking. So, 2 women will go in Tennis. In singles, it is unlikely that anyone will qualify given current ranking. In Men’s doubles, Bopanna and Divij are around rank 50 in the world. They need to be in top 25 for a chance. So being on the conservative side, 2 Indians in Tennis at Tokyo Olympics.
Triathlon: India is not in contention.
Volleyball: India is out of qualification contention in Volleyball.
Water Polo: India is not in contention.
Weightlifting: Saikhom Mirabai Chanu is currently in direct Olympic qualification spot in Women’s 49 kg category. Jeremy Lalrinnunga has chance at continental qualification spot in Men’s 67 kg category. So, hoping that he get it, 2 quotas in Weightlifting.
Wrestling: 4 Indians have already qualified. There are still 14 categories where India can get a quota. India can hope for 4 more quotas ( 1GR, 2 W, 1 FS) in upcoming Asian and World qualifiers.
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Here is a summary of our prediction:
| Sports | Predicted Indian Number |
| Archery | 6 |
| Athletics | 24 |
| Badminton | 5 |
| Boxing | 10 |
| Equestrian | 1 |
| Fencing | 1 |
| Field Hockey | 32 |
| Golf | 4 |
| Judo | 1 |
| Rowing | 1 |
| Shooting | 16 |
| Swimming | 2 |
| Table Tennis | 4 |
| Tennis | 2 |
| Weightlifting | 2 |
| Wrestling | 8 |
| Total | 119 |
Our prediction does not take into account tripartite invitation places.
So our prediction is at Tokyo, 119 athletes will represent India.
Let us see how qualification event goes in the coming months….
